In the first two posts of this series, I’ve shared some increasingly bizarre facts about the UK’s European Union membership referendum. On June 23rd, the country exercises its democratic right to determine that future against a more somber backdrop, following the shocking politically-motivated murder of Labour MP Jo Cox. The landscape against which voting will take place looks as follows:
What does Return Path’s email data say? And can I use what it’s telling us to make my own bold prediction about the election outcome? Read on to find out!
One reason for Vote Leave’s better overall performance has been its ability to acquire more primary email addresses from its supporters. These are accounts where individuals read most – or all – of their email every day, and trust between recipient and sender is vital for these high-performance addresses to be provided.
What does this data tell us? It seems to point towards a younger Stronger In demographic, while Vote Leave supporters look like they are a bit older. If so, this may not be good for “Remain” – as I mentioned in my previous post, half of young Londoners (18-24) admit they may not bother voting. Somewhat surreally, this may be because many of them are going to the Glastonbury music festival that takes place this weekend!
One consolation for both sets of supporters is 8 percent of their email traffic comes from travel companies. If they aren’t happy with the outcome, they can always book a trip somewhere else!
My Prediction – I can’t present all these facts and not have an opinion on the outcome, so it’s time to put my head on the block!
As we have seen, Stronger In has built a broader base of support, but Vote Leave has run a smarter campaign, getting more emails delivered and generating greater engagement by making emotional appeals to primary email address owners. Stronger In will also be impacted by less support from undecided voters and lower turnout from young voters.
Once I’ve weighted for all these factors, my prediction is that it’s going to be excruciatingly close. I’m calling it in favor of a “Remain” outcome, by 52 percent to 48 percent. I will insert a weaselly caveat that my calculation includes an error margin of ± 3.5 percent, so it could still end up going either way!
As Sir Richard Branson phrased it so eloquently earlier this week: on Friday morning we will wake up to find out if we are members of Great Britain – or Little Britain!